The Under Went 12–4 in Preseason Week 1. Here's Every Total, Why It Happened, and Whether It Continues

Last week we published five years of preseason Week 1 finals and found the 'always bet the under' rule was mostly a myth: against a 36.5-point line, those 80 games actually went over 55% of the time. Then the 2026 opener happened, and the under went 12–4. Both things are true. Here's the full sheet and what to make of it.

Every game, every number

Thursday: Packers–Steelers total 40.5, final 28–9 Steelers (37, under). Lions–Bengals 37.5, final 16–14 Bengals (30, under). Colts–Patriots 37.5, final 13–13 (26, under). Chargers–Texans 36.5, final 27–7 Chargers (34, under). Cardinals–Raiders 42.5, final 27–14 Cardinals (41, under). Titans–49ers 39.5, final 19–13 Titans (32, under). Six for six to the under before the weekend even started.

Friday: Broncos–Falcons 40.5, final 27–7 Broncos (34, under). Buccaneers–Jets 35.5, final 24–16 Bucs (40, over). Dolphins–Commanders 35.5, final 20–7 Commanders (27, under).

Saturday: Browns–Bears 40.5, final 34–10 Bears (44, over). Vikings–Giants 42.5, final 13–10 Vikings (23, under). Panthers–Bills 38.5, final 29–14 Bills (43, over). Rams–Chiefs 35.5, final 20–12 Rams (32, under). Jaguars–Saints 35.5, final 24–20 Jaguars (44, over). Eagles–Ravens 36.5, final 24–7 Ravens (31, under). Cowboys–Seahawks 37.5, final 17–7 Cowboys (24, under).

The shape of it

The average closing total was 38.25. The average game produced 33.9 points, 4.4 under the number, and the median was 33. Only six of sixteen games cracked 37 points at all. The four overs weren't close calls either: two of them (Bears–Browns and Jaguars–Saints) hit 44, both driven by backup quarterbacks throwing against third-string secondaries in the second half, which is exactly the kind of over you can't predict from a depth chart.

The bigger surprise was the sides. Underdogs went 12–4 against the spread and 9–6–1 straight up. Only four favorites covered, the Chargers, Broncos, Vikings and Bills, and every one of those was a modest favorite of 3.5 or less. The 7-point Bengals and 6-point Titans both won and both failed to cover. Home teams went 6–9–1, right in line with the 47.5% home win rate from our five-year sample: home field is still not a thing in August.

Why this week skewed under

Three things stacked up. First, starters sat almost everywhere, Goff, Purdy, Stroud, Maye, Nix and Daniel Jones never took a snap, so the scripted first-quarter scoring most totals are built around simply didn't happen for a lot of teams. Second, the weather was fine and the defenses were vanilla, but the offenses were more vanilla: teams ran the ball (Denver alone had 162 rushing yards) and bled clock. Third, and this is the one that repeats, the books hung a lot of these totals in the 40s on the strength of last year's 44.8-point Week 1 average, and 2026 reverted hard. Lines lag; results don't.

Does it continue into Week 2?

Probably not at 12–4, and here's the honest reason: Week 2 tends to score more than Week 1 because starters play into the second quarter and backups who now know the offense play the rest. Books also adjust, expect Week 2 totals a point or two lower than they would have been. The 2021–2025 sample says preseason totals at the numbers books actually post are close to a coin flip; one week doesn't change that. The edge, if there is one, is the same as always: read who's playing. A team resting its quarterback and running back on Thursday morning is an under lean by Thursday night, regardless of what the trend says.

The crew takeaway

If your league's chooser proposes a preseason total this week, the pick isn't 'under because unders are hot.' It's 'under because the coach said the starters are done after one series', or 'over because both backups played well last week and both coaches want to see them throw.' Trend-chasing feels like an edge and is mostly noise. Usage is the edge. And keep it at your standard weekly wager: a 12–4 week is fun to write about and dangerous to bet on.

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