NFL Preseason Week 1 by the Numbers: Five Years of Finals, and Why Home Field Basically Disappears

Preseason Week 1 is the most-bet week of August and the least understood. So we went to the tape: all 80 first-full-slate preseason games from 2021 through 2025, straight from the box scores. No vibes, just finals.

Home field? Basically gone.

Across those 80 games, home teams went 38–40–2, 47.5%. That's a coin flip that slightly favors the road team, in a sport where regular-season home teams historically win around 55%. It makes sense once you remember what August football is: backups vs. backups, starters in street clothes, and crowds at half-throttle. In 2021 road teams went 10–6, with the Jets winning at the Giants and the Chargers beating the Rams in their shared building. Even 2025's home-friendly slate (8–6–2) included the Jets winning 30–10 at Green Bay and Denver rolling 30–9 at San Francisco. The lesson: don't pay a single cent of line value for 'home field' in preseason Week 1.

Overs vs. unders: the myth check

You'll hear 'always bet preseason unders' every August. The scores say it's not that simple. The average Week 1 preseason game in our sample landed at 38.6 combined points, with a median of 37. Books typically hang preseason totals in the mid-to-high 30s, and against a 36.5-point line, these games actually went OVER 55% of the time (44 of 80, with pushes excluded). Against 38, it's a dead coin flip: 39 overs, 41 unders. The honest read: at the numbers books actually post, preseason Week 1 totals are close to 50/50, and the edge is in the specific matchup, not a blanket rule.

The variance is the real story

Year-to-year swings are wild: 2021 averaged just 31.9 points per game; 2025 averaged 44.8. Same week, same league, thirteen points of difference. Individual games are wilder: 2024 gave us Lions–Giants at 17 total points AND Broncos–Colts at 64 in the same weekend. 2025 had Commanders–Patriots hit 66 while Lions–Falcons managed 27. When one week can produce a 17 and a 66, a $20 total bet is entertainment, not investment, size it that way.

What actually predicts August winners

The famous example: Baltimore once won 24 straight preseason games, a streak that ran until 2023, under a coach who openly cared about winning them. That's the real preseason edge, and it has nothing to do with talent: it's who WANTS the game. First-year head coaches trying to set a tone, teams with real QB battles playing their best guys longer, veteran contenders resting everyone. Before your league votes on a preseason pick, skip the depth chart and read the coach quotes about who's playing, the third-string quarterback who'll take 30 snaps matters more than the star who'll take zero.

The crew takeaway

Treat preseason Week 1 like the exhibition it is: ignore home field entirely, treat totals as a matchup call instead of a rule, and weight coach intent above roster strength. And keep the wager at your league's standard size, August is for sweating together, not for funding a book's September.

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