The Trends Through Seven Weeks: Another Double-Digit Favorite Died, the Dogs Finally Lost a Week, and We Bet Against Our Own Ledger

All fourteen Week 7 games are final, Monday night included. We graded the week against the closing numbers using the final scores, stacked it on the six-week ledger, and grade our own homework as always, which hurts more than usual this week.

The receipts on last week's angles

The scorecard, in order. We said Houston laying 10.5 at home one week after the market's last double-digit spread got beaten outright 'should make everyone's palms itch': the Giants won the game 27-21 in overtime, the second straight week a double-digit favorite lost outright. We said Cincinnati opening as road favorites in Baltimore was entirely a bet on Lamar's practice report: he never practiced, never played, and the Bengals won 35-13, a cover so wide the line was irrelevant. We said Detroit minus 3 at a 53.5 total was the week's best watch, and watching was free: the game produced 37 points and Green Bay covered by half a point. The miss: we noted Seattle laying points to an unbeaten for the second time this season and reminded everyone San Francisco walked out of that building with a win the first time. Not this time. Seattle 20, Kansas City 3, and the parallel died in the first quarter. Two hits, one free watch, one honest miss.

We read the ledger aloud every week, then bet against it

Full disclosure, as always, and this one is on all of us. Our Week 7 pick was a two-leg parlay at +270 on FanDuel: Jets minus 3.5 against winless Miami, and Rams minus 3.5 in Vegas, ten dollars to win about twenty-seven. The Rams leg was never in doubt, 35-21, covered by double digits. The Jets leg is the lesson: this column has spent six weeks documenting that bad teams with a pulse keep biting, and we still voted to lay points with a 2-4 team against an 0-5 one. Miami won the game outright, 28-25. That is the fourth time this season a winless or one-win team has won outright as an underdog, and the first time we were on the wrong side of it. The pot sits at $1,168.71 and the season record is 3-4. One housekeeping note with a silver lining: the app now records the exact line the book gives at placement, because our treasurer got minus 3.5 on legs we proposed at minus 4.5, and results grade on what was actually bet.

The dog ledger: a losing week, and it barely mattered

Underdogs went 6-8 against the spread in Week 7, their first losing week since September, and it still FELT like a dog week because four of them won outright: Atlanta over San Francisco, Miami over the Jets, Tampa Bay by 30 in Carolina, and the Giants in Houston. The running count since Week 2: dogs 52-36-3 against the spread, with 36 outright winners in six weeks. The favorites who covered were mostly laying short numbers, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Seattle, and Cincinnati all at 3 or less, plus Denver, the Rams, and Dallas on Monday night. The pattern inside the pattern holds: double-digit spreads are where favorites go to die, two straight weeks now, and the market just posted another one.

Totals finally picked a side

Overs went 9-5 in Week 7, the first week all season either side of the total won by more than a game, with Monday night's 59 points on a 43.5 total the exclamation point. The season ledger now reads 56 overs, 49 unders, and a push. Before anyone builds a lean on that: five of the nine overs cleared by a touchdown or more, which is blowout variance wearing a trend costume. Matchup first, same as every previous edition of this column.

The Week 8 board

The byes take Houston, New Orleans, the Giants, and San Francisco. Four numbers deserve the stare. Minnesota at Detroit opened Lions minus 3, which makes the 6-0 Vikings the THIRD unbeaten team priced as an underdog this season; the first one won outright in Seattle, the second got blown out in the same building last week, so the trend is officially 1-1 and the number is really about whether you believe 16-10 football travels. Cincinnati is laying 10 at home against Tennessee, the third double-digit spread in three weeks, after the previous two both lost outright; the Bengals are also the hottest team on the board, which is exactly how these numbers trap people. Buffalo opened minus 3.5 hosting Baltimore with the line hostage to Lamar's Wednesday practice. And Kansas City, one week after scoring 3, lays 1.5 in Denver against a 5-2 team that just won by 14; short road favorites coming off embarrassments are historically the market's most honest prices. New England laying 7.5 in Miami against the team that just found its quarterback rounds out the watch list.

What survives contact with Week 8

The ledger holds even in a losing week: underdogs with a pulse deserve real votes, and the week they finally went 6-8 against the spread, they still produced four moneyline winners, including one that cashed against us. Double-digit favorites are now 0-2 in two weeks and the market posted a third. And the in-house lesson is the sharpest one: a trend you can recite is worthless if the vote ignores it. When the league picks this week, somebody should read the Miami result out loud first. Monday night's answer to the NFC East question, for the record: Dallas 38, Philadelphia 21, a road favorite that covered with ease while the Giants watched from the top of the standings.

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